Once the disappointment over the BC election isn’t so painful, there’s something that needs to be talked about regarding polling.  This is a quick, stream-of-consciousness post, and I plan on writing more later.

While Mario Canseco of Angus Reid said, this morning, that it’s not a “methodology” problem, I think it is. Forum Research, while still off, was the closest to the results, with a survey sample of about 1,100 using telephone voting. Angus Reid, Ekos, Ipsos, etc., all used web-based voting with samples of about 800, and were wildly off.

The polling firms claim that web panels can work well, because you can weight respondents based on demographics. Sure, but you’re weighting a non-random sample, which can be really problematic scientifically. And it’s web based. Everyone knows that political parties send out e-blasts to freep polls – “go here and click this.” Because everyone thinks that polls lead opinion, rather than the other way around.

I know that a lot of people point at telephone polls and flail, because “cellphones aren’t polled.” Sure, they’re not. Normally. Some are, depending on where you put your phone number and such. But more importantly, the demographic most likely to be excluded from telephone polls because of over-reliance on landlines – the 18-34 demographic – is also the demographic least likely to vote. So, perhaps telephone polling acts a filter, removing the least likely voters from the poll sample to start with?

Even more importantly, 800 respondents is a dismally low sample, especially, in my mind, for a web-based vote. If we take a voting population of about 3.1 million, for a +/- 3%, 9 times out of 10 confidence level, you want to have more than 1,800 respondents.

So, for a confident poll of BC voters, you need 1,800 respondents. Forum was closest to that sample, and they were closest in their projections. Angus Reid and the rest, while they claim to weight their samples based on demographics and other fancy calculus… their sample is less than 1/3 of a number statistically required for confidence.

This doesn’t even get into the larger campaign issues.

Here we are: only hours to go until the polls close.

What will be the next BC government?

What are your hopes, fears, dreams, goals?

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Please add in your comments below

1. What are your seat predictions?
2. What do you think will be the final popular vote results?
3. Will Christy Clark lose her seat?
4. If the Liberals lose, will Christy Clark (a) resign tonight, (b) vow to rebuild the party, or (c) take time to reflect on her future?

You can read our liveblog after the jump – it starts with cautious optimism, anxiety, and some cynicism, and ends with crying.

Live-Blogging the Next BC Government continued »

At an SFU Public Square event on child poverty tonight, BC Liberal candidate Ralph Sultan evoked boos from the audience when he described the matter as a “single mom” issue.

He later defended himself, saying he was only quoting “facts” as an economist.

Liberal Ralph Sultan says kids living in poverty because of single moms, draws groans from overflow crowd at #bcchildpov #bcpoli

— Gillian Shaw (@gillianshaw) May 7, 2013

Asked Ralph Sultan will Liberals do anything to help feed BC’s hungry kids. Platform is already written ‘ain’t going to happen’ #bcchildpov

— Gillian Shaw (@gillianshaw) May 7, 2013

Also interesting: per sources on Twitter, BC Lib candidate Pat Pimm was busy blaming special needs children for problems in education.

It keeps going:

Chair of BC Premier’s Chinese Community Advisory Council admits calling talk show under false name to admonish NDP candidate’s English

— Steve Cash (@cosmiclint) May 7, 2013

Some years, Earth Day clicks for people in a profound way. I’ve spoken to a few who were distinctly non-plussed with how things didn’t come together for them and their dreams this year.

If you need some optimism for the rest of your week, check out this compendium. Pay attention to the ages of those in photos, and immediately scroll to the bottom to read what our dear Cascadian friends to the south got up to at U-Dub. What would that look like in your community?

Embrace peace, watch your footprint, look up for bald eagles, imagine the future you want and pick one thing to enact before Earth Day next year.

Earth Day 2013: Highlights from The Face of Climate Change

People across the globe came together for Earth Day 2013 and united in a single call for climate action. Participants in this first phase of The Face of Climate Change campaign shared their stories about how climate change is affecting their lives, showed the world what they’re doing about it, and made commitments to continue being part of the solution.

Below, you’ll find some regional highlights from the thousands of photo-testimonials we received between February 22nd and April 22nd, 2013.

via Earth Day 2013: Highlights from The Face of Climate Change | Earth Day Network.

There’s a moment of fear that all women come to know. I know it well. I was once the only female member of a music band. One time at practice, a male band member joked that “We should get blowjobs for all the band members.”

What did I do? Everyone else in the room thought this was funny so I tried to laugh along.

People will hate you for calling them out on sexism, and I didn’t want to be disliked for rocking the boat. I wanted to be accepted as a member of the group, but I shouldn’t have had to accept sexist comments in order for that to happen.

The fear comes from the feeling that women should to submit to sexism and objectification. That we should enjoy being dehumanized and reduced to sex objects. It’s frightening to feel powerless and alone in an environment which is openly disrespectful towards women.

I promise this has happened to every woman you know. Any woman could tell you a dozen more stories like this.

Still, I was shocked by this blog post (“What would you do if you weren’t afraid?”) by Meagan Marie, employee at Crystal Dynamics gaming studio. And also by this blog post by gaming industry veteran Christa Charter. Because as much as I and other women and girls experience sexism in everyday situations, women working in the gaming industry get this disproportionately.

Significant strides have been made by the gaming industry in the past year thanks to prominent feminists like Anita Sarkeesian, but those strides have mostly been in starting and growing the conversation. The concrete, tangible improvements in the gaming industry offices and in the video games themselves are another matter. And the price paid by pioneers of female leadership in the gaming industry, such as that paid by Meagan and Christa, was/is much too high.

It’s something especially important to think about as Fan Expo comes to Vancouver today.