“Amongst people ‘absolutely certain to vote’, the governing party is only two points ahead of the NDP (41% to 39%).”
“The BC election may well be determined by the turnout levels of supporters for each party.”
via BC Liberals Lead, Voter Turnout Will Decide the BC Election | Angus Reid Strategies. Read the whole piece; it’s fascinating.
Gordon Campbell prides himself on not pandering to the rabble that makes up the poorest 95% of the 4m+ British Columbians.
The NDP has grown solidly in the last few years in its ability to relate to this poorest 95%. The Obama bump didn’t hurt either. With the neoLiberals’ lead within the margin of error of decided voters, we’re starting in a tie with the winner determined by which party can convince people that voting matters. Luckily we also have an electoral reform referendum to get out and vote for again this time, so I don’t need to give you a hint which side that favours.
And with the welcome rise of the BC Conservatives [who have some sound criticisms of the neoLiberal party’s carnage] as a viable alternative to the neoLiberals, Campbell is going to be cruising the privatized liquor stores on May 13th looking for empty boxes to move his stuff back over to the opposition leader’s office.
Then with a winning electoral reform referendum we will be looking for some seriously enhanced representation in the ledge: the Conservatives peeling non-neoliberals from the neoLiberal party, the Greens getting electoral representation with members from across the spectrum, maybe members of the soft right-wing of the NDP joining a new centre-right Liberal party. Could this be the end of polarized BC politics?
More from Angus: “Overall, 51 per cent of respondents across the province say it is ‘time for a change of government in British Columbia’ while only 34 per cent feel that the current government should be returned to office. When Gordon Campbell’s name was added to the question, only 30 per cent of respondents thought ‘Gordon Campbell should be re-elected’ while a majority (54%) said it was time for a different premier.”
Clearly, Campbell has made the right choice to avoid all unnecessary public appearances since his arrest in Maui, but even that tactic just isn’t good enough anymore.
And while the NDP needs to define itself more and do better convincing the population how it will manage the transition from an economy that serves global corporate profit to one that serves actual human beings, there is plenty of time, especially since they haven’t even released their platform yet. Wait until next week to see the plan.
So to be this close to the government that has swelled its public service communication ranks to 250 as it spends our tax dollars telling us how awesome they are while under the Bill 42 gag law–all this, before the NDP platform is even out, I’m very confident!
Now it’s time to organize the 50/50 pool on which out-of-touch, condescending cabinet ministers will lose their seat as Campbell loses government. Whoever guesses the closest mix wins half the pot. The other half will go to any of hundreds of human-advocacy organizations the neoLiberal carnage has affected.